England v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 29
4 February 2023Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 7.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Kyle Sinckler
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Lewis Ludlam+8.2
- 7Ben Curry
- 8Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 9Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Ollie Hassell-Collins
- 12Owen Farrell(c)+1.1
- 13Joe Marchant
- 14Max Malins
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Jack Walker
- 17Mako Vunipola+4.0
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Nick Isiekwe
- 20Ben Earl+3.7
- 21Ben Youngs+2.3
- 22Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 23Anthony Watson-0.9
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3WP Nel+4.2
- 4Richie Gray-0.1
- 5Grant Gilchrist(c)-0.4
- 6Jamie Ritchie(c)-7.2
- 7Luke Crosbie
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Stuart Hogg
Replacements
- 16Fraser Brown-1.1
- 17Jamie Bhatti+0.8
- 18Simon Berghan-0.6
- 19Jonny Gray-7.0
- 20Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Blair Kinghorn-12.3
- 23Chris Harris+7.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Scoring
| England | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.