Competition context
Whether a team plays above or below its rating depending on the competition, measured against what its rating expected at the time.
| Team | Six Nations | Rugby Championship | World Cup | Tours and tests |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | — | +0.3±3.6 73 matches | +8.1±4.5 42 matches | -1.1±2.6 153 matches |
| Australia | — | -2.1±2.1 163 matches | +6.8±6.8 45 matches | +1.1±2.1 165 matches |
| Canada | — | — | -8.9±6.8 26 matches | -5.7±5.8 41 matches |
| England | +1.5±2.2 153 matches | — | +6.6±6.3 48 matches | +2.0±2.6 152 matches |
| Fiji | — | — | -2.0±7.8 30 matches | -0.8±6.1 44 matches |
| France | +1.7±2.2 154 matches | — | +5.3±5.4 47 matches | -1.4±2.5 146 matches |
| Georgia | — | — | -8.9±7.7 24 matches | -0.8±3.6 42 matches |
| Ireland | +1.9±2.2 150 matches | — | +2.5±5.7 37 matches | +1.5±2.8 129 matches |
| Italy | -4.4±2.5 133 matches | — | -4.7±8.9 30 matches | -2.4±3.3 124 matches |
| Japan | — | — | -10.1±9.4 31 matches | -3.4±4.3 62 matches |
| Namibia | — | — | -24.3±10.5 27 matches | +4.4±12.5 16 matches |
| New Zealand | — | +1.7±2.1 164 matches | +16.0±7.1 52 matches | +7.4±3.0 149 matches |
| Portugal | — | — | -12.6±21.2 8 matches | -0.3±12.4 21 matches |
| Romania | — | — | -18.0±7.9 26 matches | -4.5±6.9 38 matches |
| Russia | — | — | -15.6±7.4 8 matches | -8.2±16.0 11 matches |
| Samoa | — | — | -2.1±7.2 32 matches | -0.6±6.3 32 matches |
| Scotland | -1.5±1.9 153 matches | — | +9.5±7.5 36 matches | +2.7±2.8 122 matches |
| South Africa | — | +0.2±2.3 152 matches | +11.7±5.2 50 matches | +4.0±2.6 156 matches |
| Tonga | — | — | -4.8±7.2 30 matches | -8.6±7.3 36 matches |
| USA | — | — | -8.2±6.4 23 matches | +1.0±6.2 51 matches |
| Uruguay | — | — | -17.7±11.7 18 matches | -0.3±7.3 39 matches |
| Wales | +0.4±2.3 153 matches | — | +5.4±5.5 40 matches | -3.4±2.5 145 matches |
Points of margin per match above or below expectation, with its margin of error beside it. Only figures clearing that margin are coloured; the rest are inside the range chance alone would produce.
What the forecasts do with it
World Cup fixtures carry a small per-team adjustment. A side with few World Cup matches barely moves. No other competition is adjusted, and the accuracy figures on model performance are scored without it.
| Team | World Cup adjustment |
|---|---|
| Namibia | -8.52 pts |
| Uruguay | -4.62 pts |
| Romania | -4.61 pts |
| USA | -2.88 pts |
| Georgia | -2.63 pts |
| Japan | -2.56 pts |
| Russia | -2.16 pts |
| Portugal | -1.70 pts |
| Canada | -1.09 pts |
| Samoa | -0.57 pts |
| Fiji | -0.48 pts |
| Italy | -0.48 pts |
| Ireland | +0.36 pts |
| Tonga | +1.43 pts |
| England | +2.37 pts |
| France | +2.51 pts |
| Wales | +3.05 pts |
| Australia | +3.46 pts |
| Scotland | +3.84 pts |
| Argentina | +3.96 pts |
| South Africa | +4.78 pts |
| New Zealand | +5.89 pts |
Where the labels come from
The match record does not name the competition a fixture belonged to, so all but one of these labels is worked out from the teams and the date.
- World Cup — stored on the match
- Six Nations — inferred; reproduces the format's match count in 129 of 144 seasons
- Rugby Championship — inferred; no month window separates it cleanly from the third Bledisloe test