Competition context
Whether a team plays above or below its rating depending on the competition, measured against what its rating expected at the time.
| Team | Six Nations | Rugby Championship | World Cup | Tours and tests |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | — | -0.6±3.6 75 matches | +9.2±4.9 42 matches | +6.6±3.2 225 matches |
| Australia | — | -1.7±2.1 168 matches | +8.0±6.9 45 matches | +2.9±2.2 183 matches |
| Canada | — | — | -5.9±8.2 25 matches | -1.4±2.4 216 matches |
| England | +2.2±2.3 153 matches | — | +7.3±6.2 47 matches | +4.3±3.0 166 matches |
| Fiji | — | — | -2.0±6.9 30 matches | -0.3±2.8 182 matches |
| France | +2.2±2.3 154 matches | — | +5.4±5.4 47 matches | +1.7±2.5 175 matches |
| Georgia | — | — | -8.6±7.4 24 matches | +3.9±2.4 238 matches |
| Ireland | +1.9±2.2 150 matches | — | +3.0±5.6 37 matches | +4.7±2.8 161 matches |
| Italy | -6.2±2.5 133 matches | — | -6.9±8.9 29 matches | +1.9±3.3 174 matches |
| Japan | — | — | -13.3±8.9 31 matches | +9.5±4.0 258 matches |
| Namibia | — | — | -30.5±9.9 26 matches | +7.5±4.4 128 matches |
| New Zealand | — | +2.0±2.1 170 matches | +17.2±6.9 51 matches | +10.2±3.0 168 matches |
| Portugal | — | — | -8.0±19.4 8 matches | +1.9±2.7 227 matches |
| Romania | — | — | -18.4±8.1 26 matches | +1.8±2.6 252 matches |
| Russia | — | — | -16.4±8.3 8 matches | +2.7±3.1 194 matches |
| Samoa | — | — | -1.0±6.8 32 matches | +0.1±3.0 164 matches |
| Scotland | -1.6±1.9 153 matches | — | +7.9±6.3 36 matches | +6.0±3.0 154 matches |
| South Africa | — | -0.0±2.3 157 matches | +11.0±4.9 50 matches | +5.9±2.8 175 matches |
| Tonga | — | — | -6.4±7.0 30 matches | +0.4±3.7 162 matches |
| USA | — | — | -10.3±5.4 23 matches | +0.5±3.0 207 matches |
| Uruguay | — | — | -13.1±10.3 19 matches | +0.6±3.0 210 matches |
| Wales | +0.7±2.4 153 matches | — | +5.8±5.4 40 matches | -0.2±2.8 181 matches |
Points of margin per match above or below expectation, with its margin of error beside it. Only figures clearing that margin are coloured; the rest are inside the range chance alone would produce.
What the forecasts do with it
World Cup fixtures carry a small per-team adjustment. A side with few World Cup matches barely moves. No other competition is adjusted, and the accuracy figures on model performance are scored without it.
| Team | World Cup adjustment |
|---|---|
| Namibia | -12.97 pts |
| Japan | -8.71 pts |
| Romania | -6.89 pts |
| Georgia | -4.04 pts |
| Uruguay | -3.77 pts |
| USA | -3.40 pts |
| Russia | -2.63 pts |
| Tonga | -2.53 pts |
| Italy | -1.93 pts |
| Canada | -1.48 pts |
| Portugal | -1.37 pts |
| Fiji | -0.67 pts |
| Samoa | -0.42 pts |
| Ireland | -0.14 pts |
| France | +1.66 pts |
| England | +1.94 pts |
| Argentina | +2.01 pts |
| Scotland | +2.36 pts |
| Wales | +2.49 pts |
| Australia | +3.47 pts |
| South Africa | +3.96 pts |
| New Zealand | +5.63 pts |
Where the labels come from
The match record does not name the competition a fixture belonged to, so all but one of these labels is worked out from the teams and the date.
- World Cup — stored on the match
- Six Nations — inferred; reproduces the format's match count in 129 of 144 seasons
- Rugby Championship — inferred; no month window separates it cleanly from the third Bledisloe test