Updates

Every data update, what came in, and what moved as a result.

Friday, August 21, 2026 at 06:32 AM

Light refresh

9 new club results arrived, 338 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.

Results taken in

0 new · 9 club · 3,673 on file

None — this run rebuilt from the results already held.

Ratings

0 moved · 87 unchanged

Nothing moved.

Published forecasts

338 moved of 554

urc_r7_853% → 38%-14.8
cham_r1_354% → 67%+13.4
urc_r5_154% → 42%-12.5
t14_p_r20_554% → 43%-11.4
t14_p_r8_664% → 52%-11.3
urc_r13_661% → 50%-11.3
t14_p_r21_463% → 52%-11.0
t14_p_r17_648% → 59%+10.6

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7090Backtest log loss 0.6670Holdout accuracy 0.7350Holdout log loss 0.5632

Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 06:22 AM

Light refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7090Backtest log loss 0.6670Holdout accuracy 0.7283Holdout log loss 0.5647

Tuesday, August 18, 2026 at 06:21 AM

Light refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 07:15 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 07:15 AM

Light refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 07:15 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 07:15 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 07:15 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 07:14 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:34 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:34 AM

Light refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:34 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:34 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:34 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:33 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:20 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:20 AM

Light refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:20 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:20 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:19 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 06:19 AM

Full refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Monday, August 17, 2026 at 04:52 AM

Light refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Sunday, August 16, 2026 at 04:52 AM

Light refreshNo change

Nothing changed. No new results arrived, so no rating moved and every published forecast is the one that was already there.

Model unchangedBacktest accuracy 0.7091Backtest log loss 0.6630Holdout accuracy 0.7337Holdout log loss 0.5640

Every figure here is measured by comparing the published numbers before and after the run.

A rating moving less than 1.0 point, or a forecast moving less than 1.0 percentage point, is counted as unchanged.

Kept for 180 days; 23 runs on file.