Updates
What came in on each pipeline run, and what moved as a result.
Wednesday, 21 October 2026 at 11:09
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Tuesday, 20 October 2026 at 10:52
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 19 October 2026 at 12:13
2 new international results arrived, 4 ratings moved, 265 forecasts moved. The model was retrained as well, so a forecast may have moved because the ratings moved, because the model did, or both.
Results taken in
2 new international · 9,287 internationals on file
- 2026-10-17 Andorra 20-33 Israel
- 2026-10-17 Croatia 53-8 Slovenia
Ratings
4 moved · 111 unchanged
- Israel82 → 154+71.8
- Andorra-51 → -118-66.6
- Slovenia-160 → -163-3.4
- Croatia433 → 436+2.9
Published forecasts
265 moved of 532
- Ospreys Cardiff Blues65% → 57%-7.8
- Munster Leinster44% → 51%+7.1
- Castres Olympique Bordeaux Begles43% → 50%+6.4
- Lyon Stade Toulousain41% → 35%-6.2
- Lyon Montpellier Herault43% → 38%-5.1
- Racing 92 Stade Toulousain54% → 49%-5.0
- Sharks Stormers62% → 57%-5.0
- Clermont Auvergne Toulon63% → 58%-4.9
Monday, 19 October 2026 at 00:55
6 new club results arrived, 214 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 6 new club · 9,285 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 115 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
214 moved of 532
- Vannes Racing 9252% → 41%-11.0
- Leicester Tigers Northampton Saints63% → 52%-10.7
- Castres Olympique Bordeaux Begles53% → 43%-9.5
- Racing 92 Stade Toulousain46% → 55%+9.0
- Leicester Tigers Harlequins84% → 75%-8.8
- Exeter Chiefs Harlequins78% → 70%-8.3
- Vannes Bordeaux Begles41% → 32%-8.3
- Exeter Chiefs Northampton Saints56% → 48%-7.9
Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 10:34
3 new club results arrived, 179 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 3 new club · 9,285 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 115 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
179 moved of 538
- Cardiff Blues Montpellier Herault54% → 37%-17.1
- Clermont Auvergne Glasgow Warriors45% → 33%-11.8
- Lyon Bordeaux Begles55% → 44%-10.7
- Saracens Exeter Chiefs80% → 71%-9.2
- Saracens Northampton Saints69% → 60%-9.0
- Lyon Castres Olympique80% → 71%-8.6
- Bulls Bath Rugby63% → 71%+8.3
- Saracens La Rochelle71% → 63%-8.0
Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 00:36
This run failed at run.py simulate champions_cup --year 2027 -n 5000 --seed 42 --db data/rugby.db and did not finish. Some of its work was published first — 0 ratings and 219 forecasts moved — so the site is showing a partial update.
Stopped at run.py simulate champions_cup --year 2027 -n 5000 --seed 42 --db data/rugby.db — the step exited non-zero
Results taken in
0 new international · 10 new club · 9,285 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 115 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
219 moved of 550
- Ulster Zebre30% → 88%+58.2
- Clermont Auvergne Montpellier Herault62% → 44%-18.9
- Ospreys Stormers53% → 38%-15.3
- Clermont Auvergne Stade Toulousain45% → 31%-14.0
- Bath Rugby Leicester Tigers71% → 58%-12.9
- Bath Rugby Northampton Saints56% → 43%-12.6
- Clermont Auvergne Pau66% → 54%-12.2
- Clermont Auvergne La Rochelle64% → 52%-11.9
Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 10:27
1 new international result arrived, 3 new club results arrived, 2 ratings moved, 207 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
1 new international · 3 new club · 9,285 internationals on file
- 2026-10-17 Australia 21-43 New Zealand
Ratings
2 moved · 113 unchanged
Australia2120 → 2101-18.9
New Zealand2457 → 2476+18.9
Published forecasts
207 moved of 550
- Perpignan Toulon66% → 50%-15.8
- Perpignan Stade Toulousain44% → 34%-10.8
- Edinburgh Leinster48% → 38%-10.4
- Edinburgh Lions59% → 49%-9.8
- Edinburgh Glasgow Warriors56% → 46%-9.7
- Perpignan Pau53% → 45%-8.4
- Bayonne Perpignan73% → 81%+8.2
- Scarlets Edinburgh43% → 51%+8.1
Friday, 16 October 2026 at 11:04
1 new club result arrived, 275 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 9,284 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 115 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
275 moved of 553
- Benetton Treviso Sharks44% → 53%+9.1
- Benetton Treviso Sharks44% → 53%+9.0
- Benetton Treviso Edinburgh50% → 58%+8.9
- Benetton Treviso Cardiff Blues48% → 57%+8.2
- Benetton Treviso Lyon50% → 58%+8.1
- Clermont Auvergne Pau57% → 65%+8.1
- Lions Stormers48% → 56%+7.8
- Connacht Cardiff Blues69% → 76%+7.3
Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 10:45
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Wednesday, 14 October 2026 at 11:04
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Tuesday, 13 October 2026 at 13:26
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 12 October 2026 at 14:23
309 forecasts moved. The model was retrained as well, so a forecast may have moved because the ratings moved, because the model did, or both.
Results taken in
0 new international · 3,683 internationals on file
None — this run rebuilt from the results already held.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
309 moved of 553
- Ulster Ospreys60% → 70%+9.5
- Western Force Blues61% → 52%-9.0
- Cardiff Blues Sharks57% → 66%+8.6
- Zebre Benetton Treviso38% → 45%+7.8
- Sale Sharks Gloucester Rugby50% → 58%+7.7
- Munster Ospreys75% → 82%+7.5
- Harlequins Saracens42% → 34%-7.4
- Vannes Black Lion76% → 83%+7.3
Monday, 12 October 2026 at 02:00
3 new club results arrived, 113 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 3 new club · 3,683 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
113 moved of 553
- Exeter Chiefs Connacht71% → 57%-14.4
- Exeter Chiefs Northampton Saints54% → 45%-9.2
- Exeter Chiefs Leicester Tigers61% → 53%-7.6
- Exeter Chiefs Bristol Rugby64% → 57%-6.4
- Exeter Chiefs Bath Rugby60% → 54%-5.3
- Exeter Chiefs Harlequins79% → 74%-5.1
- Exeter Chiefs Saracens54% → 49%-5.1
- Bayonne Perpignan77% → 72%-5.1
Sunday, 11 October 2026 at 12:11
1 new club result arrived. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Sunday, 11 October 2026 at 01:39
14 new club results arrived, 300 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 14 new club · 3,683 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
300 moved of 556
- Bath Rugby Northampton Saints68% → 56%-12.1
- La Rochelle Montpellier Herault57% → 69%+11.8
- Bath Rugby Saracens73% → 61%-11.1
- Lyon Stade Francais Paris66% → 56%-10.7
- Racing 92 La Rochelle70% → 59%-10.5
- Montpellier Herault Bulls71% → 61%-10.0
- Benetton Treviso Cardiff Blues56% → 46%-10.0
- Perpignan Lyon56% → 66%+9.8
Saturday, 10 October 2026 at 11:58
1 new international result arrived, 5 new club results arrived, 2 ratings moved, 177 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
1 new international · 5 new club · 3,683 internationals on file
- 2026-10-10 New Zealand 50-19 Australia
Ratings
2 moved · 85 unchanged
- Australia1664 → 1658-5.9
- New Zealand2007 → 2013+5.8
Published forecasts
177 moved of 570
- Scarlets Ospreys56% → 44%-12.2
- England Australia68% → 79%+10.9
- Gloucester Rugby Leicester Tigers59% → 49%-10.8
- Ulster Ospreys75% → 64%-10.7
- Glasgow Warriors Leicester Tigers72% → 63%-8.4
- Scotland Australia59% → 68%+8.4
- Gloucester Rugby Bristol Rugby65% → 57%-8.1
- Gloucester Rugby Stormers67% → 59%-7.1
Friday, 9 October 2026 at 12:46
1 new club result arrived, 211 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,682 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
211 moved of 573
- Ospreys Benetton Treviso67% → 73%+6.7
- Sharks Edinburgh69% → 75%+6.3
- Newcastle Falcons Castres Olympique34% → 40%+6.0
- Exeter Chiefs Leicester Tigers56% → 61%+5.4
- Gloucester Rugby Bordeaux Begles60% → 65%+5.3
- Clermont Auvergne Pau64% → 69%+5.2
- Glasgow Warriors Leicester Tigers67% → 72%+5.1
- Munster Gloucester Rugby63% → 68%+5.0
Thursday, 8 October 2026 at 12:41
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Wednesday, 7 October 2026 at 12:35
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Tuesday, 6 October 2026 at 12:41
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 5 October 2026 at 13:35
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 5 October 2026 at 12:31
311 forecasts moved. The model was rebuilt and scored identically, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 3,682 internationals on file
None — this run rebuilt from the results already held.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
311 moved of 573
- Montpellier Herault Vannes15% → 88%+72.6
- Newcastle Falcons Northampton Saints88% → 17%-70.7
- Bordeaux Begles Vannes18% → 86%+68.1
- La Rochelle Vannes18% → 86%+67.8
- Stade Francais Paris Vannes19% → 86%+67.7
- Vannes Bordeaux Begles90% → 44%-46.6
- Stade Toulousain Castres Olympique40% → 86%+46.4
- Vannes Stade Francais Paris89% → 43%-46.1
Monday, 5 October 2026 at 01:43
2 new club results arrived, 122 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 2 new club · 3,682 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
122 moved of 578
- Saracens Sale Sharks33% → 81%+47.9
- Toulon Pau57% → 46%-10.2
- Toulon Bordeaux Begles50% → 43%-7.3
- Toulon Bayonne68% → 62%-5.9
- Toulon Montpellier Herault47% → 42%-5.3
- Harlequins Sale Sharks67% → 62%-5.2
- Toulon Lyon59% → 54%-5.2
- US Montauban Toulon26% → 31%+5.1
Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 11:53
2 new club results arrived, 61 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 2 new club · 3,682 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
61 moved of 580
- Benetton Treviso Sharks52% → 44%-8.0
- Northampton Saints Bulls73% → 66%-7.5
- La Rochelle Connacht54% → 61%+6.5
- Stade Francais Paris Cardiff Blues73% → 67%-6.1
- Sharks Castres Olympique74% → 80%+5.9
- Stormers Bristol Rugby72% → 66%-5.8
- Montpellier Herault Northampton Saints59% → 65%+5.7
- Ospreys Harlequins62% → 57%-5.5
Sunday, 4 October 2026 at 02:11
This run failed at run.py simulate npc --year 2026 -n 5000 --seed 42 --db data/rugby.db and did not finish. Some of its work was published first — 0 ratings and 239 forecasts moved — so the site is showing a partial update.
Stopped at run.py simulate npc --year 2026 -n 5000 --seed 42 --db data/rugby.db — the step exited non-zero
Results taken in
0 new international · 14 new club · 3,682 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
239 moved of 582
- Castres Olympique Stade Toulousain86% → 39%-47.0
- Bristol Rugby Northampton Saints79% → 60%-19.3
- La Rochelle Clermont Auvergne61% → 76%+14.9
- Northampton Saints Saracens71% → 59%-12.4
- Gloucester Rugby Northampton Saints44% → 55%+11.4
- Clermont Auvergne Montpellier Herault55% → 45%-9.8
- Northampton Saints Bath Rugby71% → 61%-9.3
- Zebre Sharks35% → 26%-8.7
Saturday, 3 October 2026 at 11:19
7 new club results arrived, 141 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 7 new club · 3,682 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
141 moved of 595
- Vannes Edinburgh57% → 46%-11.0
- Harlequins Exeter Chiefs57% → 50%-7.5
- Stormers Cardiff Blues80% → 74%-6.1
- Lions Exeter Chiefs62% → 56%-6.0
- Scarlets Edinburgh51% → 45%-5.4
- Sharks Edinburgh74% → 68%-5.4
- Ospreys Benetton Treviso67% → 72%+5.3
- Bulls Stormers62% → 67%+5.2
Friday, 2 October 2026 at 12:00
1 new club result arrived, 103 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,682 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
103 moved of 602
- Benetton Treviso Sharks48% → 51%+2.9
- Sharks Bulls49% → 51%+2.7
- Castres Olympique Racing 9253% → 56%+2.4
- Bayonne Stade Francais Paris52% → 54%+2.4
- Cardiff Blues Glasgow Warriors45% → 47%+2.4
- Racing 92 Gloucester Rugby60% → 62%+2.2
- Exeter Chiefs Bristol Rugby63% → 66%+2.1
- Toulon Racing 9254% → 57%+2.1
Thursday, 1 October 2026 at 12:32
1 new club result arrived, 195 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,682 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
195 moved of 603
- Montpellier Herault US Montauban89% → 93%+3.6
- Gloucester Rugby Stormers54% → 57%+3.2
- Pau US Montauban90% → 94%+3.2
- Stade Toulousain Stade Francais Paris81% → 84%+3.2
- Glasgow Warriors Leicester Tigers63% → 66%+3.1
- Stade Toulousain Racing 9282% → 85%+3.1
- Sharks Connacht56% → 59%+3.1
- Bayonne US Montauban89% → 92%+3.0
Wednesday, 30 September 2026 at 11:51
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Tuesday, 29 September 2026 at 12:04
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 28 September 2026 at 12:59
305 forecasts moved. The model was retrained as well, so a forecast may have moved because the ratings moved, because the model did, or both.
Results taken in
0 new international · 3,682 internationals on file
None — this run rebuilt from the results already held.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
305 moved of 604
- Scarlets Edinburgh41% → 50%+8.4
- New South Wales Waratahs Queensland Reds48% → 56%+8.0
- Crusaders Hurricanes61% → 53%-7.4
- Sharks Leinster55% → 48%-6.8
- Fijian Drua New South Wales Waratahs62% → 56%-6.5
- Brumbies Queensland Reds71% → 64%-6.3
- Canada Spain18% → 24%+5.9
- New South Wales Waratahs Brumbies41% → 46%+5.6
Monday, 28 September 2026 at 01:35
1 new international result arrived, 2 new club results arrived, 2 ratings moved, 134 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
1 new international · 2 new club · 3,682 internationals on file
- 2026-09-27 Australia 42-38 South Africa
Ratings
2 moved · 85 unchanged
South Africa2115 → 2069-46.6- Australia1622 → 1664+41.9
Published forecasts
134 moved of 604
- Stade Toulousain Montpellier Herault64% → 75%+11.6
- Toulon Stade Toulousain30% → 37%+7.4
- Saracens Leicester Tigers64% → 72%+7.1
- Exeter Chiefs Leicester Tigers55% → 62%+6.8
- Gloucester Rugby Leicester Tigers46% → 52%+6.3
- Stade Toulousain Saracens74% → 67%-6.2
- Castres Olympique Stade Toulousain33% → 39%+6.2
- Ireland South Africa45% → 51%+5.5
Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 11:28
2 new club results arrived, 56 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 2 new club · 3,681 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
56 moved of 606
- Counties Manukau Hawke's Bay39% → 49%+9.3
- Pau La Rochelle65% → 73%+8.3
- Exeter Chiefs Gloucester Rugby59% → 65%+6.1
- Waikato Tasman62% → 67%+4.5
- Taranaki Wellington85% → 88%+3.1
- Bayonne Montpellier Herault50% → 47%-2.6
- Bay of Plenty North Harbour57% → 54%-2.5
- Racing 92 Stade Toulousain50% → 52%+2.1
Sunday, 27 September 2026 at 01:24
13 new club results arrived, 344 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 13 new club · 3,681 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
344 moved of 608
- Gloucester Rugby Bordeaux Begles42% → 64%+21.2
- Gloucester Rugby Exeter Chiefs41% → 59%+18.0
- Gloucester Rugby Sale Sharks57% → 72%+14.7
- Bristol Rugby Exeter Chiefs46% → 60%+14.7
- Exeter Chiefs Bristol Rugby78% → 63%-14.5
- Racing 92 Gloucester Rugby76% → 62%-14.2
- Bristol Rugby Bordeaux Begles42% → 57%+14.2
- Exeter Chiefs Northampton Saints64% → 51%-13.7
Saturday, 26 September 2026 at 10:57
8 new club results arrived, 198 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 8 new club · 3,681 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
198 moved of 620
- Northampton Saints Newcastle Falcons15% → 90%+74.2
- Harlequins Bath Rugby70% → 44%-26.2
- Stormers Racing 9260% → 71%+11.0
- Gloucester Rugby Stormers55% → 44%-10.8
- Bristol Rugby Bath Rugby54% → 43%-10.7
- Connacht Leinster56% → 46%-10.2
- Bath Rugby Saracens54% → 63%+9.8
- Bath Rugby Northampton Saints49% → 59%+9.7
Friday, 25 September 2026 at 14:41
1 new club result arrived, 35 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,681 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
35 moved of 628
- Manawatu Canterbury27% → 31%+4.5
- Vannes Edinburgh52% → 54%+2.2
- Northland Counties Manukau78% → 80%+2.2
- Wellington Waikato29% → 31%+2.2
- Castres Olympique Pau52% → 54%+2.2
- Waikato Tasman60% → 62%+2.1
- Munster Racing 9260% → 62%+1.9
- Dragons Bayonne52% → 54%+1.8
Thursday, 24 September 2026 at 11:17
1 new club result arrived, 55 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,681 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
55 moved of 629
- Waikato Tasman67% → 60%-6.5
- Castres Olympique Stade Toulousain39% → 36%-3.0
- Bay of Plenty North Harbour59% → 57%-2.8
- Stade Toulousain Saracens72% → 74%+2.7
- Perpignan Stade Toulousain32% → 30%-2.5
- Ospreys Vannes73% → 70%-2.4
- US Montauban Clermont Auvergne27% → 24%-2.2
- La Rochelle Pau72% → 74%+2.1
Wednesday, 23 September 2026 at 10:51
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Tuesday, 22 September 2026 at 10:52
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 21 September 2026 at 12:04
343 forecasts moved. The model was retrained as well, so a forecast may have moved because the ratings moved, because the model did, or both.
Results taken in
0 new international · 3,681 internationals on file
None — this run rebuilt from the results already held.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
343 moved of 616
- Blues Chiefs40% → 49%+9.5
- Black Lion Ospreys23% → 31%+8.7
- Lyon Stade Toulousain58% → 50%-8.5
- Zebre Ulster42% → 34%-7.8
- Hurricanes Chiefs76% → 68%-7.6
- Harlequins Northampton Saints47% → 39%-7.5
- New South Wales Waratahs Western Force62% → 55%-7.4
- New South Wales Waratahs Fijian Drua67% → 75%+7.3
Monday, 21 September 2026 at 01:05
1 new club result arrived, 91 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,681 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
91 moved of 616
- Toulon Stade Francais Paris44% → 55%+11.0
- Bordeaux Begles Munster77% → 72%-5.5
- Clermont Auvergne Bordeaux Begles41% → 46%+4.3
- Toulon Bordeaux Begles41% → 45%+4.1
- Stade Francais Paris Stade Toulousain46% → 43%-3.9
- Stade Toulousain Stade Francais Paris77% → 81%+3.5
- Connacht Stade Toulousain60% → 57%-3.3
- Bulls Stade Francais Paris70% → 74%+3.2
Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 10:49
1 new international result arrived, 2 new club results arrived, 2 ratings moved, 3 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
1 new international · 2 new club · 3,681 internationals on file
- 2026-09-19 Poland 33-19 Czechia
Ratings
2 moved · 85 unchanged
- Poland2501 → 2523+22.1
- Czechia2071 → 2056-14.8
Published forecasts
3 moved of 617
- Scotland Japan83% → 84%+1.1
- England New Zealand40% → 41%+1.0
- Zimbabwe England22% → 23%+1.0
Sunday, 20 September 2026 at 00:50
6 new club results arrived, 180 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 6 new club · 3,680 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
180 moved of 617
- Bayonne Clermont Auvergne82% → 58%-24.2
- Clermont Auvergne Racing 9267% → 47%-20.2
- Toulon Racing 9259% → 42%-16.6
- Lyon Stade Toulousain41% → 57%+16.3
- Pau Racing 9273% → 57%-15.8
- Racing 92 Pau53% → 67%+14.5
- Toulon Bayonne79% → 65%-13.7
- Lyon La Rochelle56% → 70%+13.6
Saturday, 19 September 2026 at 10:27
3 new club results arrived, 17 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 3 new club · 3,680 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
17 moved of 622
- Montpellier Herault Pau73% → 68%-4.5
- Lyon Stade Francais Paris59% → 57%-2.1
- Toulon Ospreys62% → 64%+1.6
- Zebre Cheetahs72% → 70%-1.5
- Bayonne Zebre76% → 75%-1.5
- La Rochelle Connacht61% → 63%+1.5
- Castres Olympique Bayonne67% → 69%+1.5
- Benetton Treviso Sharks54% → 53%-1.4
Friday, 18 September 2026 at 10:43
1 new club result arrived, 54 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,680 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
54 moved of 622
- Bordeaux Begles Munster72% → 76%+4.6
- Bordeaux Begles Stade Francais Paris71% → 74%+3.1
- Stade Toulousain Pau74% → 77%+3.0
- Clermont Auvergne Glasgow Warriors55% → 58%+2.8
- Bordeaux Begles Bayonne84% → 86%+2.7
- Clermont Auvergne La Rochelle56% → 59%+2.5
- Clermont Auvergne Pau56% → 58%+2.4
- Stade Francais Paris La Rochelle56% → 59%+2.2
Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 11:11
1 new club result arrived, 61 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,680 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
61 moved of 622
- Perpignan Zebre76% → 82%+6.4
- Castres Olympique Scarlets72% → 76%+4.3
- Toulon Bayonne73% → 77%+3.9
- Stade Francais Paris Northampton Saints53% → 57%+3.8
- Clermont Auvergne Castres Olympique77% → 80%+3.5
- Toulon Perpignan71% → 75%+3.3
- Clermont Auvergne Perpignan79% → 82%+2.7
- Castres Olympique Pau47% → 45%-2.5
Thursday, 17 September 2026 at 05:18
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Wednesday, 16 September 2026 at 10:35
This run failed at run.py fetch and did not finish. Nothing was published, so every figure on the site is the one the last completed run left. This is not a quiet day — the update stopped, and the numbers are older than their date suggests.
Stopped at run.py fetch — All 5 ESPN league fetches failed — the source is unreachable or blocking this client (check the User-Agent policy in fetch_matches). Failed: international, six_nations, rugby_championship, world_cup, nations_championship
Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 10:46
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 14 September 2026 at 16:08
295 forecasts moved. The model was retrained as well, so a forecast may have moved because the ratings moved, because the model did, or both.
Results taken in
0 new international · 3,680 internationals on file
None — this run rebuilt from the results already held.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
295 moved of 542
- Scarlets Benetton Treviso59% → 48%-11.7
- Racing 92 Bordeaux Begles42% → 52%+9.8
- Cardiff Blues Montpellier Herault46% → 54%+7.5
- Cardiff Blues Sharks73% → 66%-7.5
- Exeter Chiefs Leicester Tigers59% → 52%-7.0
- Sale Sharks Clermont Auvergne51% → 58%+6.7
- Zebre Ulster38% → 45%+6.7
- Leinster Stormers77% → 70%-6.7
Monday, 14 September 2026 at 00:49
1 new club result arrived, 111 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,680 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
111 moved of 542
- Toulon Stade Toulousain39% → 24%-14.2
- Lyon Stade Toulousain52% → 39%-13.1
- Clermont Auvergne Stade Toulousain63% → 51%-12.0
- Stade Francais Paris Bordeaux Begles51% → 61%+10.4
- Lyon Bordeaux Begles38% → 48%+10.4
- Perpignan Stade Toulousain36% → 26%-10.1
- Castres Olympique Stade Toulousain42% → 33%-8.8
- Bordeaux Begles Stade Toulousain71% → 62%-8.7
Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 11:07
2 new club results arrived, 2 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 2 new club · 3,680 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
2 moved of 543
- Bordeaux Begles Montpellier Herault70% → 69%-1.0
- Castres Olympique Toulon64% → 65%+1.0
Sunday, 13 September 2026 at 00:34
1 new international result arrived, 6 new club results arrived, 2 ratings moved, 203 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
1 new international · 6 new club · 3,680 internationals on file
- 2026-09-12 South Africa 43-28 New Zealand
Ratings
2 moved · 85 unchanged
- South Africa2094 → 2115+21.4
- New Zealand2026 → 2007-19.1
Published forecasts
203 moved of 543
- Perpignan Castres Olympique78% → 58%-20.6
- Lyon Castres Olympique59% → 75%+16.3
- Racing 92 Montpellier Herault60% → 45%-14.9
- Racing 92 Bristol Rugby71% → 57%-14.3
- Clermont Auvergne Racing 9261% → 75%+14.2
- Lyon Toulon64% → 78%+14.0
- Lyon Stade Francais Paris43% → 56%+13.4
- Racing 92 Clermont Auvergne65% → 52%-13.3
Saturday, 12 September 2026 at 10:03
3 new club results arrived, 3 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 3 new club · 3,679 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
3 moved of 548
- Pau Bordeaux Begles54% → 53%-1.2
- La Rochelle Montpellier Herault67% → 68%+1.1
- La Rochelle Bordeaux Begles55% → 56%+1.1
Friday, 11 September 2026 at 10:29
1 new club result arrived, 17 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,679 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
17 moved of 548
- Stade Toulousain Pau71% → 73%+2.0
- La Rochelle Pau71% → 73%+1.7
- Glasgow Warriors Stormers70% → 69%-1.6
- Stormers Sharks75% → 74%-1.6
- La Rochelle Montpellier Herault65% → 67%+1.5
- Perpignan Toulon53% → 54%+1.5
- Pau Bordeaux Begles53% → 54%+1.4
- US Montauban Montpellier Herault14% → 13%-1.4
Thursday, 10 September 2026 at 10:34
1 new club result arrived, 69 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,679 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
69 moved of 548
- US Montauban Castres Olympique21% → 18%-3.4
- Perpignan Bordeaux Begles21% → 18%-3.1
- US Montauban Bayonne21% → 18%-3.0
- US Montauban La Rochelle14% → 11%-3.0
- US Montauban Pau15% → 13%-2.8
- US Montauban Stade Francais Paris15% → 12%-2.7
- Stade Toulousain Racing 9275% → 78%+2.4
- US Montauban Stade Toulousain12% → 10%-2.3
Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 10:26
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Tuesday, 8 September 2026 at 10:17
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 7 September 2026 at 11:26
344 forecasts moved. The model was retrained as well, so a forecast may have moved because the ratings moved, because the model did, or both.
Results taken in
0 new international · 3,679 internationals on file
None — this run rebuilt from the results already held.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
344 moved of 548
- Edinburgh Benetton Treviso70% → 59%-10.7
- Perpignan Toulon63% → 52%-10.4
- Clermont Auvergne Pau63% → 72%+9.9
- Wales Australia48% → 39%-9.1
- Bath Rugby Saracens66% → 57%-9.0
- Scotland Australia72% → 63%-8.4
- Bristol Rugby Leicester Tigers51% → 42%-8.2
- Gloucester Rugby Harlequins57% → 49%-8.1
Monday, 7 September 2026 at 00:30
1 new club result arrived, 101 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,679 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
101 moved of 548
- Toulon Stade Toulousain39% → 33%-6.8
- Perpignan La Rochelle39% → 33%-6.7
- La Rochelle Montpellier Herault61% → 67%+6.1
- Perpignan Stade Toulousain30% → 24%-5.7
- Clermont Auvergne Stade Toulousain54% → 49%-5.2
- La Rochelle Racing 9268% → 73%+5.1
- La Rochelle Bordeaux Begles51% → 56%+4.7
- Stade Toulousain Exeter Chiefs79% → 75%-4.0
Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 10:10
2 new club results arrived. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 00:24
2 new international results arrived, 6 new club results arrived, 4 ratings moved, 208 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
2 new international · 6 new club · 3,679 internationals on file
- 2026-09-05 Argentina 28-28 Australia
- 2026-09-05 South Africa 29-24 New Zealand
Ratings
4 moved · 83 unchanged
- South Africa2078 → 2094+16.0
- New Zealand2040 → 2026-14.3
Argentina1577 → 1574-3.1- Australia1619 → 1622+3.1
Published forecasts
208 moved of 549
- Stade Francais Paris Perpignan28% → 85%+57.1
- Montpellier Herault Pau50% → 68%+17.7
- Clermont Auvergne Bordeaux Begles62% → 46%-15.4
- Bristol Rugby Bordeaux Begles50% → 36%-14.1
- Montpellier Herault Bordeaux Begles68% → 54%-13.3
- La Rochelle Pau77% → 64%-12.8
- Pau Racing 9254% → 66%+12.1
- Perpignan Toulon50% → 62%+11.9
Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 09:55
1 new international result arrived, 3 new club results arrived, 2 ratings moved, 39 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
1 new international · 3 new club · 3,677 internationals on file
- 2026-09-05 Japan 57-12 Canada
Ratings
2 moved · 85 unchanged
Canada643 → 641-2.1
Japan1284 → 1286+1.8
Published forecasts
39 moved of 554
- Wales Japan80% → 77%-3.1
- USA Japan22% → 25%+2.9
- Munster Gloucester Rugby83% → 81%-2.7
- France South Africa37% → 35%-2.3
- England New Zealand34% → 31%-2.3
- Munster Ospreys83% → 81%-2.3
- France Argentina81% → 79%-2.0
- Black Lion Ospreys24% → 26%+1.9
Friday, 4 September 2026 at 10:27
1 new club result arrived, 19 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,676 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
19 moved of 554
- Connacht Cardiff Blues79% → 77%-2.8
- Scarlets Dragons64% → 65%+1.6
- Connacht Munster69% → 70%+1.5
- Sharks Glasgow Warriors55% → 57%+1.4
- Scarlets Connacht36% → 35%-1.4
- Leinster Glasgow Warriors75% → 74%-1.3
- Sharks Connacht58% → 57%-1.2
- Munster Glasgow Warriors53% → 55%+1.2
Thursday, 3 September 2026 at 10:37
1 new club result arrived, 38 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,676 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
38 moved of 554
- Ospreys Bulls82% → 38%-44.3
- Ulster Scarlets36% → 80%+43.6
- Zebre Sharks77% → 36%-40.2
- Lions Munster38% → 59%+21.2
- Leinster Connacht59% → 76%+17.8
- Munster Bulls60% → 58%-2.4
- Leinster Stormers74% → 76%+1.9
- Sharks Connacht56% → 58%+1.8
Wednesday, 2 September 2026 at 10:11
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Tuesday, 1 September 2026 at 10:46
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 31 August 2026 at 12:14
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 31 August 2026 at 00:56
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 11:09
2 new club results arrived. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Sunday, 30 August 2026 at 00:59
2 new international results arrived, 4 ratings moved, 19 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
2 new international · 3,676 internationals on file
- 2026-08-29 Argentina 21-27 Australia
- 2026-08-29 South Africa 33-26 New Zealand
Ratings
4 moved · 83 unchanged
- Australia1583 → 1618+35.8
- Argentina1617 → 1582-35.0
- South Africa2036 → 2063+27.4
- New Zealand2045 → 2021-24.1
Published forecasts
19 moved of 554
- England Australia74% → 68%-6.7
- Australia New Zealand19% → 22%+3.3
- Ireland South Africa48% → 45%-3.0
- France South Africa41% → 39%-2.6
- Australia Hong Kong China90% → 87%-2.5
- England New Zealand27% → 29%+2.4
- Fiji Argentina26% → 28%+2.4
- Scotland Australia60% → 58%-2.2
Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 12:14
2 new club results arrived. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 06:30
2 new club results arrived. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Thursday, 27 August 2026 at 17:15
1 new club result arrived. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Tuesday, 25 August 2026 at 06:24
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 24 August 2026 at 10:30
1 new club result arrived, 386 forecasts moved. The model was retrained as well, so a forecast may have moved because the ratings moved, because the model did, or both.
Results taken in
0 new international · 1 new club · 3,674 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
386 moved of 554
- t14_p_r5_285% → 23%-62.0
- t14_p_r18_222% → 82%+60.1
- t14_p_r15_582% → 27%-55.3
- t14_p_r8_183% → 29%-54.6
- t14_p_r21_129% → 83%+53.9
- t14_p_r8_384% → 31%-53.5
- t14_p_r2_529% → 81%+52.8
- t14_p_r9_784% → 31%-52.8
Sunday, 23 August 2026 at 06:30
1 new international result arrived, 3 new club results arrived, 2 ratings moved, 18 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
1 new international · 3 new club · 3,674 internationals on file
- 2026-08-22 South Africa 16-33 New Zealand
Ratings
2 moved · 85 unchanged
- South Africa2108 → 2036-72.4
- New Zealand1982 → 2045+62.9
Published forecasts
18 moved of 554
- nati_r6_335% → 48%+12.8
- nati_r5_128% → 40%+12.5
- rwc_pa_r3_124% → 20%-3.8
- rwc_pb_r2_192% → 95%+3.1
- nati_r4_431% → 34%+2.8
- nati_r5_425% → 22%-2.5
- nati_r6_126% → 24%-2.0
- nati_r6_451% → 53%+1.9
Saturday, 22 August 2026 at 06:24
2 new club results arrived. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Friday, 21 August 2026 at 06:32
9 new club results arrived, 338 forecasts moved. The model was left alone on this run, so any forecast that moved did so because the ratings behind it moved.
Results taken in
0 new international · 9 new club · 3,673 internationals on file
No international results. The club results are counted above and not listed — only their count crosses back from the club fetch.
Ratings
0 moved · 87 unchanged
Nothing moved.
Published forecasts
338 moved of 554
- urc_r7_853% → 38%-14.8
- cham_r1_354% → 67%+13.4
- urc_r5_154% → 42%-12.5
- t14_p_r20_554% → 43%-11.4
- t14_p_r8_664% → 52%-11.3
- urc_r13_661% → 50%-11.3
- t14_p_r21_463% → 52%-11.0
- t14_p_r17_648% → 59%+10.6
Wednesday, 19 August 2026 at 06:22
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Tuesday, 18 August 2026 at 06:21
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Monday, 17 August 2026 at 06:33
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Sunday, 16 August 2026 at 04:52
Nothing changed. No new results arrived in either domain, so no rating and no forecast moved.
Every figure here is measured by comparing the published numbers before and after the run.
A rating moving less than 1.0 point, or a forecast moving less than 1.0 percentage point, is counted as unchanged.
Kept for 180 days; 83 runs on file.