Argentina vs Australia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 56.6%draw 3.0%40.4% AustraliaAustralia 59.9%draw 3.0%37.1% ArgentinaArgentina 44.3%draw 3.0%52.7% AustraliaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Australia and 23 Argentina, with the middle run at 2 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours Australia.
Argentina 1617, Australia 1583 — 35 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina10–3–30Australia43 meetings, 1979 to 2025 · Australia by 8.1 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Argentina by 2.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Australia 26–28 Argentina | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-09-06 | Australia 28–24 Argentina | — | Queensland Country Bank Stadium |
| 2024-09-07 | Argentina 67–27 Australia | — | Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López |
| 2024-08-31 | Argentina 19–20 Australia | — | Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi |
| 2023-07-15 | Australia 31–34 Argentina | — | CommBank Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 43. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.