Argentina vs Australia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 46.3%draw 2.9%50.8% AustraliaAustralia 66.7%draw 2.9%30.4% ArgentinaArgentina 35.8%draw 2.9%61.3% AustraliaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Australia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 17 Australia and 16 Argentina, half of them between 8 Australia and 7 Argentina, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 29-29 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Australia.
Argentina 2036, Australia 2101 — 66 points, favouring Australia
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina10–4–31Australia45 meetings, 1979 to 2026 · Australia by 7.8 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Argentina by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Argentina 28–28 Australia | — | Estadio Malvinas Argentinas |
| 2026-08-29 | Argentina 21–27 Australia | — | Estadio 23 de Agosto |
| 2025-09-13 | Australia 26–28 Argentina | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-09-06 | Australia 28–24 Argentina | — | Queensland Country Bank Stadium |
| 2024-09-07 | Argentina 67–27 Australia | — | Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 45. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.