Argentina vs Chile
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 95.7%3.3% ChileChile 8.9%90.1% ArgentinaArgentina 93.3%5.7% ChileEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Chile, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Argentina and 52 Argentina, half of them between 8 Argentina and 37 Argentina, with the middle run at 20 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-12 on a tight afternoon and 44-24 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Chile.
Argentina 2036, Chile 1530 — 506 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina40–0–0Chile40 meetings, 1936 to 2023 · Argentina by 40.5 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Argentina by 60.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-30 | Argentina 59–5 Chile | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 2014-05-25 | Chile 12–73 Argentina | — | Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo |
| 2013-05-01 | Argentina 85–10 Chile | — | Estadio Charrúa(neutral) |
| 2012-05-26 | Chile 6–59 Argentina | — | Centro de Alto Rendimiento del Rugby, La Reina |
| 2011-05-22 | Argentina 61–6 Chile | — | Cataratas RC |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 40. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.