Argentina vs England
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 33.5%draw 2.4%64.1% EnglandEngland 79.4%draw 2.4%18.2% ArgentinaArgentina 25.7%draw 2.4%71.9% EnglandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v England, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 England and 15 Argentina, half of them between 12 England and 3 Argentina, with the middle run at 3 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps England.
Argentina 2036, England 2235 — 200 points, favouring England
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina5–2–25England32 meetings, 1978 to 2026 · England by 10.4 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · England by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Argentina 24–31 England | Nations Championship | Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades |
| 2025-11-22 | England 27–23 Argentina | — | London |
| 2025-07-12 | Argentina 17–22 England | — | Estadio Bicentenario |
| 2025-07-05 | Argentina 12–35 England | — | Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi |
| 2023-10-27 | Argentina 23–26 England | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 32. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.