Argentina vs England
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 40.1%draw 2.6%57.3% EnglandEngland 77.2%draw 2.6%20.2% ArgentinaArgentina 28.9%draw 2.6%68.5% EnglandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 England and 16 Argentina, with the middle run at 2 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours England.
Argentina 1617, England 1763 — 146 points, favouring England
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina5–1–25England31 meetings, 1981 to 2026 · England by 10.7 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · England by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Argentina 24–31 England | Nations Championship | Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades |
| 2025-11-22 | England 27–23 Argentina | — | London |
| 2025-07-12 | Argentina 17–22 England | — | Estadio Bicentenario |
| 2025-07-05 | Argentina 12–35 England | — | Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi |
| 2023-10-27 | Argentina 23–26 England | — | Stade de France(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 31. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.