Argentina vs Fiji
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 84.4%draw 2.4%13.2% FijiFiji 33.5%draw 2.4%64.1% ArgentinaArgentina 75.4%draw 2.4%22.2% FijiEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Fiji, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Fiji and 42 Argentina, half of them between 3 Argentina and 29 Argentina, with the middle run at 13 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-24 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Fiji.
Argentina 2036, Fiji 1841 — 194 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina3–0–1Fiji4 meetings, 1980 to 2003 · Argentina by 8.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-08-18 | Argentina 49–30 Fiji | — | Córdoba University Stadium |
| 1987-05-24 | Argentina 9–28 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Rugby Park(neutral) |
| 1980-11-08 | Argentina 38–16 Fiji | — | Ferro Carril Oeste Stadium |
| 1980-11-01 | Argentina 34–22 Fiji | — | Ferro Carril Oeste Stadium |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.