Argentina vs France
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 37.3%draw 2.2%60.5% FranceFrance 76.6%draw 2.2%21.2% ArgentinaArgentina 29.2%draw 2.2%68.6% FranceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 France and 12 Argentina, with the middle run at 2 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours France.
Argentina 1617, France 1842 — 225 points, favouring France
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina15–1–40France56 meetings, 1949 to 2024 · France by 8.5 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · France by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-22 | France 37–23 Argentina | — | Stade de France |
| 2024-07-13 | Argentina 33–25 France | — | Estadio José Amalfitani |
| 2024-07-06 | Argentina 13–28 France | — | Estadio Malvinas Argentinas |
| 2021-11-05 | France 29–20 Argentina | — | Saint-Denis |
| 2019-09-21 | France 23–21 Argentina | — | Ajinomoto Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 56. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.