Argentina vs France
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 31.5%draw 2.0%66.5% FranceFrance 85.5%draw 2.0%12.5% ArgentinaArgentina 21.7%draw 2.0%76.3% FranceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v France, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 France and 14 Argentina, half of them between 13 France and 3 Argentina, with the middle run at 4 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps France.
Argentina 2036, France 2301 — 266 points, favouring France
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina15–1–40France56 meetings, 1949 to 2024 · France by 8.5 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · France by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-22 | France 37–23 Argentina | — | Stade de France |
| 2024-07-13 | Argentina 33–25 France | — | Estadio José Amalfitani |
| 2024-07-06 | Argentina 13–28 France | — | Estadio Malvinas Argentinas |
| 2021-11-05 | France 29–20 Argentina | — | Saint-Denis |
| 2019-09-21 | France 23–21 Argentina | — | Ajinomoto Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 56. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.