Argentina vs Georgia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 80.2%draw 2.7%17.1% GeorgiaGeorgia 39.2%draw 2.7%58.1% ArgentinaArgentina 69.9%draw 2.7%27.4% GeorgiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Georgia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Georgia and 45 Argentina, half of them between 2 Argentina and 30 Argentina, with the middle run at 14 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 37-23 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Georgia.
Argentina 2036, Georgia 1899 — 137 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina5–0–0Georgia5 meetings, 2007 to 2017 · Argentina by 24.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-06-24 | Argentina 45–29 Georgia | — | Estadio 23 de Agosto |
| 2015-09-25 | Argentina 54–9 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Kingsholm(neutral) |
| 2013-06-22 | Argentina 29–18 Georgia | — | Estadio del Bicentenario |
| 2011-10-02 | Argentina 25–7 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Central Energy Trust Arena(neutral) |
| 2007-09-11 | Argentina 33–3 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Matmut Stadium de Gerland(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.