Argentina vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 89.3%draw 1.7%9.0% JapanJapan 30.7%draw 1.7%67.6% ArgentinaArgentina 79.4%draw 1.7%18.9% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 43 Argentina, with the middle run at 14 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-24 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours Japan.
Argentina 1617, Japan 1310 — 307 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina3–0–0Japan3 meetings, 1999 to 2023 · Argentina by 22.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | Japan 27–39 Argentina | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 2016-11-05 | Japan 20–54 Argentina | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 1999-10-16 | Argentina 33–12 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium(neutral) |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.