Argentina vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 84.2%draw 2.4%13.4% JapanJapan 33.9%draw 2.4%63.7% ArgentinaArgentina 75.0%draw 2.4%22.6% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Japan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Japan and 38 Argentina, half of them between 2 Argentina and 25 Argentina, with the middle run at 11 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Japan.
Argentina 2036, Japan 1846 — 190 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina6–0–1Japan7 meetings, 1993 to 2023 · Argentina by 16.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | Japan 27–39 Argentina | Rugby World Cup | Stade de la Beaujoire |
| 2016-11-05 | Japan 20–54 Argentina | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
| 2005-04-23 | Argentina 68–36 Japan | — | Buenos Aires Cricket & Rugby Club |
| 1999-10-16 | Argentina 33–12 Japan | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium(neutral) |
| 1998-09-15 | Japan 44–29 Argentina | — | Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.