Argentina vs Namibia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 97.1%1.9% NamibiaNamibia 5.0%94.0% ArgentinaArgentina 95.6%3.4% NamibiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Namibia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Argentina and 54 Argentina, half of them between 9 Argentina and 38 Argentina, with the middle run at 22 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 85 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-13 on a tight afternoon and 47-25 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Namibia.
Argentina 2036, Namibia 1240 — 796 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina3–0–0Namibia3 meetings, 2003 to 2015 · Argentina by 52.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-10-11 | Argentina 64–19 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Leicester City Stadium(neutral) |
| 2007-09-22 | Argentina 63–3 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Orange Velodrome(neutral) |
| 2003-10-14 | Argentina 67–14 Namibia | Rugby World Cup | Central Coast Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.