Argentina vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 97.1%1.9% RomaniaRomania 5.4%93.6% ArgentinaArgentina 95.4%3.6% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Argentina and 53 Argentina, half of them between 8 Argentina and 38 Argentina, with the middle run at 21 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 86 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-13 on a tight afternoon and 47-26 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Romania.
Argentina 2036, Romania 1265 — 771 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina9–0–0Romania9 meetings, 1973 to 2021 · Argentina by 25.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-07-03 | Romania 17–24 Argentina | — | Stadionul National Arcul de Triumf |
| 2011-09-17 | Argentina 43–8 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Invercargill Rugby Park(neutral) |
| 2003-10-22 | Argentina 50–3 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Allianz Stadium(neutral) |
| 1998-08-08 | Argentina 68–22 Romania | — | Central Cordoba |
| 1997-10-18 | Romania 18–45 Argentina | — | Stade Patrice Brocas(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.