Argentina vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 46.6%draw 2.8%50.6% ScotlandScotland 71.4%draw 2.8%25.8% ArgentinaArgentina 36.2%draw 2.8%61.0% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Scotland and 16 Argentina, with the middle run at 1 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours Scotland.
Argentina 1617, Scotland 1730 — 113 points, favouring Scotland
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina12–0–12Scotland24 meetings, 1990 to 2026 · Scotland by 4.7 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Scotland by 8.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Argentina 38–47 Scotland | Nations Championship | Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes |
| 2025-11-15 | Scotland 24–33 Argentina | — | Edinburgh |
| 2022-11-19 | Scotland 52–29 Argentina | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2022-07-16 | Argentina 34–31 Scotland | — | Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades |
| 2022-07-09 | Argentina 6–29 Scotland | — | Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.