Argentina vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 40.1%draw 2.6%57.3% ScotlandScotland 74.6%draw 2.6%22.8% ArgentinaArgentina 31.3%draw 2.6%66.1% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Scotland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Scotland and 15 Argentina, half of them between 9 Scotland and 5 Argentina, with the middle run at 1 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Argentina 2036, Scotland 2193 — 157 points, favouring Scotland
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina13–0–14Scotland27 meetings, 1969 to 2026 · Scotland by 3.7 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Scotland by 8.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Argentina 38–47 Scotland | Nations Championship | Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes |
| 2025-11-15 | Scotland 24–33 Argentina | — | Edinburgh |
| 2022-11-19 | Scotland 52–29 Argentina | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2022-07-16 | Argentina 34–31 Scotland | — | Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades |
| 2022-07-09 | Argentina 6–29 Scotland | — | Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.