Argentina vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 20.0%79.0% South AfricaSouth Africa 93.6%5.4% ArgentinaArgentina 12.5%86.5% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 39 South Africa and 10 Argentina, half of them between 24 South Africa and 1 South Africa, with the middle run at 10 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-17 on a tight afternoon and 38-28 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Argentina 2036, South Africa 2512 — 476 points, favouring South Africa
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina4–1–36South Africa41 meetings, 1993 to 2026 · South Africa by 15.5 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · South Africa by 15.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Argentina 10–17 South Africa | — | Estadio José Amalfitani |
| 2025-10-04 | Argentina 27–29 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium(neutral) |
| 2025-09-27 | South Africa 67–30 Argentina | — | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-09-28 | South Africa 48–7 Argentina | — | Mbombela Stadium |
| 2024-09-21 | Argentina 29–28 South Africa | — | Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 41. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.