Argentina vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 18.2%draw 1.1%80.7% South AfricaSouth Africa 79.8%19.2% ArgentinaArgentina 20.0%79.0% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 29 South Africa and 10 Argentina, with the middle run at 8 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Argentina are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours South Africa.
Argentina 1617, South Africa 2036 — 419 points, favouring South Africa
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina4–1–36South Africa41 meetings, 1993 to 2026 · South Africa by 15.5 on average
Last 10: 1–0–9 · South Africa by 15.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Argentina 10–17 South Africa | — | Estadio José Amalfitani |
| 2025-10-04 | Argentina 27–29 South Africa | — | Allianz Stadium(neutral) |
| 2025-09-27 | South Africa 67–30 Argentina | — | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2024-09-28 | South Africa 48–7 Argentina | — | Mbombela Stadium |
| 2024-09-21 | Argentina 29–28 South Africa | — | Estadio Único Madre de Ciudades |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 41. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.