Argentina vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 96.5%2.5% TongaTonga 9.0%90.0% ArgentinaArgentina 93.3%5.7% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Argentina and 51 Argentina, with the middle run at 21 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 44-23 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours Tonga.
Argentina 1617, Tonga 938 — 680 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina2–0–0Tonga2 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Argentina by 22.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-28 | Argentina 28–12 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
| 2015-10-04 | Argentina 45–16 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Leicester City Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.