Argentina vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 96.2%2.8% TongaTonga 6.6%92.4% ArgentinaArgentina 94.5%4.5% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Argentina and 53 Argentina, half of them between 9 Argentina and 38 Argentina, with the middle run at 21 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Argentina 2036, Tonga 1454 — 582 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina2–0–0Tonga2 meetings, 2015 to 2019 · Argentina by 22.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-28 | Argentina 28–12 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
| 2015-10-04 | Argentina 45–16 Tonga | Rugby World Cup | Leicester City Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.