Argentina vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Argentina 89.8%9.2% UruguayUruguay 13.6%85.4% ArgentinaArgentina 87.7%11.3% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Argentina and 50 Argentina, with the middle run at 19 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-11 on a tight afternoon and 42-23 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Argentina, negative favours Uruguay.
Argentina 1617, Uruguay 1177 — 441 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina2–0–0Uruguay2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Argentina by 54.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Argentina 52–17 Uruguay | — | Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena |
| 2024-07-20 | Uruguay 5–79 Argentina | — | Estadio Domingo Burgueno |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.