Argentina vs Uruguay
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Argentina 96.1%2.9% UruguayUruguay 8.5%90.5% ArgentinaArgentina 93.6%5.4% UruguayEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Argentina v Uruguay, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Argentina wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Argentina and 53 Argentina, half of them between 8 Argentina and 38 Argentina, with the middle run at 21 Argentina.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why Argentina are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Argentina winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Argentina, a bar to the left helps Uruguay.
Argentina 2036, Uruguay 1520 — 516 points, favouring Argentina
Argentina are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Argentina49–0–0Uruguay49 meetings, 1951 to 2025 · Argentina by 35.3 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Argentina by 39.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-19 | Argentina 52–17 Uruguay | — | Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena |
| 2024-07-20 | Uruguay 5–79 Argentina | — | Estadio Domingo Burgueno |
| 2015-05-16 | Uruguay 14–36 Argentina | — | Estadio Charrúa |
| 2014-05-17 | Uruguay 9–65 Argentina | — | Estadio Parque Artigas |
| 2013-04-27 | Uruguay 18–29 Argentina | — | Estadio Charrúa |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 49. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.