Australia vs England
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 45.4%draw 2.5%52.1% EnglandEngland 75.1%draw 2.5%22.4% AustraliaAustralia 34.9%draw 2.5%62.6% EnglandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 England and 16 Australia, with the middle run at 1 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-29 on an open one.
Why Australia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours England.
Australia 1583, England 1763 — 180 points, favouring England
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia27–1–29England57 meetings, 1909 to 2025 · Australia by 2.0 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · England by 12.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | England 25–7 Australia | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-11-09 | England 37–42 Australia | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2022-07-16 | Australia 17–21 England | — | Sydney Cricket Ground |
| 2022-07-09 | Australia 17–25 England | — | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2022-07-02 | Australia 30–28 England | — | Optus Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 57. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.