Australia vs England
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
England host Australia on Sunday 8 November at Allianz Stadium, London, so England are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Australia 52.4%draw 2.7%44.9% EnglandEngland 66.8%draw 2.7%30.5% AustraliaAustralia 41.3%draw 2.7%56.0% EnglandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for England v Australia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are England wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Australia and 29 England, half of them between 2 Australia and 16 England, with the middle run at 5 England.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why England are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of England winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps England, a bar to the left helps Australia.
England 2235, Australia 2101 — 134 points, favouring England
England are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia27–1–29England57 meetings, 1909 to 2025 · Australia by 2.0 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · England by 12.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-01 | England 25–7 Australia | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-11-09 | England 37–42 Australia | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2022-07-16 | Australia 17–21 England | — | Sydney Cricket Ground |
| 2022-07-09 | Australia 17–25 England | — | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2022-07-02 | Australia 30–28 England | — | Optus Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 57. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.