Australia vs Fiji
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 89.2%draw 2.0%8.8% FijiFiji 27.3%draw 2.0%70.7% AustraliaAustralia 81.1%draw 2.0%16.9% FijiEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v Fiji, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 45 Australia, half of them between 5 Australia and 32 Australia, with the middle run at 16 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-12 on a tight afternoon and 39-23 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps Fiji.
Australia 2101, Fiji 1841 — 260 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia20–1–3Fiji24 meetings, 1952 to 2025 · Australia by 15.7 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Australia by 25.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-06 | Australia 21–18 Fiji | — | McDonald Jones Stadium |
| 2023-09-17 | Australia 15–22 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2019-09-21 | Australia 39–21 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Daiwa House Premist Dome |
| 2017-06-10 | Australia 37–14 Fiji | — | AAMI Park |
| 2015-09-23 | Australia 28–13 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.