Australia vs Fiji
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 79.2%draw 2.5%18.3% FijiFiji 30.8%draw 2.5%66.7% AustraliaAustralia 73.2%draw 2.5%24.3% FijiEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Fiji and 42 Australia, with the middle run at 12 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-24 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours Fiji.
Australia 1583, Fiji 1412 — 171 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia5–0–1Fiji6 meetings, 2007 to 2025 · Australia by 15.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-06 | Australia 21–18 Fiji | — | McDonald Jones Stadium |
| 2023-09-17 | Australia 15–22 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
| 2019-09-21 | Australia 39–21 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Daiwa House Premist Dome |
| 2017-06-10 | Australia 37–14 Fiji | — | AAMI Park |
| 2015-09-23 | Australia 28–13 Fiji | Rugby World Cup | Principality Stadium(neutral) |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.