Australia vs France
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 40.7%draw 2.4%56.9% FranceFrance 78.7%draw 2.4%18.9% AustraliaAustralia 29.6%draw 2.4%68.0% FranceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Australia v France, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 France and 15 Australia, half of them between 12 France and 5 Australia, with the middle run at 2 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Australia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps France.
Australia 2101, France 2301 — 200 points, favouring France
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia29–2–23France54 meetings, 1928 to 2026 · Australia by 2.6 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · France by 2.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Australia 26–42 France | Nations Championship | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-11-22 | France 48–33 Australia | — | Stade de France |
| 2023-08-27 | France 41–17 Australia | — | Stade de France |
| 2022-11-05 | France 30–29 Australia | — | Stade de France |
| 2021-07-17 | Australia 33–30 France | — | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 54. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.