Australia vs France
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 38.3%draw 2.0%59.7% FranceFrance 70.6%draw 2.0%27.4% AustraliaAustralia 32.5%draw 2.0%65.5% FranceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 France and 16 Australia, with the middle run at 3 France.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Australia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours France.
Australia 1583, France 1842 — 259 points, favouring France
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia29–2–23France54 meetings, 1928 to 2026 · Australia by 2.6 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · France by 2.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Australia 26–42 France | Nations Championship | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2025-11-22 | France 48–33 Australia | — | Stade de France |
| 2023-08-27 | France 41–17 Australia | — | Stade de France |
| 2022-11-05 | France 30–29 Australia | — | Stade de France |
| 2021-07-17 | Australia 33–30 France | — | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 54. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.