Australia vs Georgia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 90.4%draw 1.3%8.3% GeorgiaGeorgia 16.3%draw 1.3%82.4% AustraliaAustralia 86.5%draw 1.3%12.2% GeorgiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Australia and 46 Australia, with the middle run at 17 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-12 on a tight afternoon and 40-23 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours Georgia.
Australia 1583, Georgia 1215 — 368 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia3–0–0Georgia3 meetings, 2019 to 2024 · Australia by 16.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-20 | Australia 40–29 Georgia | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-09-09 | Australia 35–15 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Stade de France |
| 2019-10-11 | Australia 27–8 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.