Australia vs Georgia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 85.2%draw 2.3%12.5% GeorgiaGeorgia 32.7%draw 2.4%64.9% AustraliaAustralia 76.0%draw 2.4%21.6% GeorgiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v Georgia, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Georgia and 46 Australia, half of them between 4 Australia and 32 Australia, with the middle run at 16 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-12 on a tight afternoon and 39-23 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps Georgia.
Australia 2101, Georgia 1899 — 202 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia3–0–0Georgia3 meetings, 2019 to 2024 · Australia by 16.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-20 | Australia 40–29 Georgia | — | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-09-09 | Australia 35–15 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Stade de France |
| 2019-10-11 | Australia 27–8 Georgia | Rugby World Cup | Shizuoka Stadium Ecopa |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.