Australia vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 87.0%draw 1.9%11.1% JapanJapan 29.5%draw 1.9%68.6% AustraliaAustralia 78.5%draw 1.9%19.6% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Japan and 43 Australia, with the middle run at 15 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-13 on a tight afternoon and 38-23 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours Japan.
Australia 1583, Japan 1310 — 272 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia7–0–0Japan7 meetings, 1987 to 2026 · Australia by 27.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Australia 56–17 Japan | — | Queensland Country Bank Stadium |
| 2026-08-08 | Japan 32–35 Australia | — | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
| 2025-10-25 | Japan 15–19 Australia | — | MUFG Stadium |
| 2021-10-23 | Japan 23–32 Australia | — | Showa Denko Dome Oita |
| 2017-11-04 | Japan 30–63 Australia | — | International Stadium Yokohama |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 7. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.