Australia vs Japan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 88.9%draw 2.0%9.1% JapanJapan 27.7%draw 2.0%70.3% AustraliaAustralia 80.7%draw 2.0%17.3% JapanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v Japan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 46 Australia, half of them between 5 Australia and 32 Australia, with the middle run at 17 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 29-12 on a tight afternoon and 40-23 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps Japan.
Australia 2101, Japan 1846 — 255 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia9–0–0Japan9 meetings, 1975 to 2026 · Australia by 27.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Australia 56–17 Japan | — | Queensland Country Bank Stadium |
| 2026-08-08 | Japan 32–35 Australia | — | Hanazono Rugby Stadium |
| 2025-10-25 | Japan 15–19 Australia | — | MUFG Stadium |
| 2021-10-23 | Japan 23–32 Australia | — | Showa Denko Dome Oita |
| 2017-11-04 | Japan 30–63 Australia | — | International Stadium Yokohama |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.