Australia vs Portugal
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 94.8%4.2% PortugalPortugal 11.2%87.8% AustraliaAustralia 91.5%7.5% PortugalEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v Portugal, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Australia and 51 Australia, half of them between 8 Australia and 37 Australia, with the middle run at 21 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 78 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 32-11 on a tight afternoon and 43-22 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps Portugal.
Australia 2101, Portugal 1638 — 463 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia1–0–0Portugal1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Australia by 20.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | Australia 34–14 Portugal | Rugby World Cup | Stade Geoffroy-Guichard |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.