Australia vs Romania
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 97.4%1.6% RomaniaRomania 4.6%94.4% AustraliaAustralia 96.0%3.0% RomaniaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v Romania, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Australia and 55 Australia, half of them between 8 Australia and 39 Australia, with the middle run at 21 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 38 and 87 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 35-14 on a tight afternoon and 48-27 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps Romania.
Australia 2101, Romania 1265 — 836 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia3–0–0Romania3 meetings, 1995 to 2003 · Australia by 56.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-10-18 | Australia 90–8 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Suncorp Stadium |
| 1999-10-03 | Australia 57–9 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Affidea Stadium(neutral) |
| 1995-06-03 | Australia 42–3 Romania | Rugby World Cup | Danie Craven Stadium(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.