Australia vs Russia
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 96.5%2.5% RussiaRussia 7.5%91.5% AustraliaAustralia 94.0%5.0% RussiaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Australia and 52 Australia, with the middle run at 21 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 83 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 33-12 on a tight afternoon and 45-24 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours Russia.
Australia 1583, Russia 425 — 1157 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia1–0–0Russia1 meeting, 2011 to 2011 · Australia by 46.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011-10-01 | Australia 68–22 Russia | Rugby World Cup | Trafalgar Park(neutral) |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.