Australia vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 40.9%draw 2.6%56.5% ScotlandScotland 61.7%draw 2.6%35.7% AustraliaAustralia 41.9%draw 2.6%55.5% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 25 Scotland and 16 Australia, with the middle run at 2 Scotland.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Australia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours Scotland.
Australia 1583, Scotland 1730 — 147 points, favouring Scotland
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia22–0–13Scotland35 meetings, 1927 to 2024 · Australia by 8.4 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Scotland by 4.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | Scotland 27–13 Australia | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2022-10-29 | Scotland 15–16 Australia | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2021-11-06 | Scotland 15–13 Australia | — | Edinburgh |
| 2017-11-25 | Scotland 53–24 Australia | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2017-06-17 | Australia 19–24 Scotland | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 35. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.