Australia vs Scotland
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 54.3%draw 2.8%42.9% ScotlandScotland 68.5%draw 2.8%28.7% AustraliaAustralia 41.4%draw 2.8%55.8% ScotlandEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v Scotland, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Scotland and 33 Australia, half of them between 5 Scotland and 17 Australia, with the middle run at 2 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps Scotland.
Australia 2101, Scotland 2193 — 92 points, favouring Scotland
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia22–0–13Scotland35 meetings, 1927 to 2024 · Australia by 8.4 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Scotland by 4.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | Scotland 27–13 Australia | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2022-10-29 | Scotland 15–16 Australia | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2021-11-06 | Scotland 15–13 Australia | — | Edinburgh |
| 2017-11-25 | Scotland 53–24 Australia | — | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2017-06-17 | Australia 19–24 Scotland | — | Allianz Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 35. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.