Australia vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 29.8%draw 1.1%69.1% South AfricaSouth Africa 91.9%draw 1.1%7.0% AustraliaAustralia 18.2%draw 1.1%80.7% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v South Africa, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 28 South Africa and 16 Australia, half of them between 15 South Africa and 2 Australia, with the middle run at 5 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-19 on a tight afternoon and 36-31 on an open one.
Why Australia are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps South Africa.
Australia 2101, South Africa 2512 — 411 points, favouring South Africa
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia42–3–56South Africa101 meetings, 1921 to 2026 · South Africa by 2.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · South Africa by 5.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | Australia 42–38 South Africa | — | Optus Stadium |
| 2025-08-23 | South Africa 30–22 Australia | — | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-08-16 | South Africa 22–38 Australia | — | Ellis Park |
| 2024-08-17 | Australia 12–30 South Africa | — | Optus Stadium |
| 2024-08-10 | Australia 7–33 South Africa | — | Suncorp Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 101. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.