Australia vs South Africa
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-23.
Australia 24.4%74.6% South AfricaSouth Africa 81.8%17.2% AustraliaAustralia 20.8%78.2% South AfricaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 32 South Africa and 14 Australia, with the middle run at 8 South Africa.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-28 on an open one.
Why Australia are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Australia, negative favours South Africa.
Australia 1583, South Africa 2036 — 453 points, favouring South Africa
Australia are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia42–3–52South Africa97 meetings, 1933 to 2025 · South Africa by 2.3 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · South Africa by 7.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | South Africa 30–22 Australia | — | DHL Stadium |
| 2025-08-16 | South Africa 22–38 Australia | — | Ellis Park |
| 2024-08-17 | Australia 12–30 South Africa | — | Optus Stadium |
| 2024-08-10 | Australia 7–33 South Africa | — | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2023-07-08 | South Africa 43–12 Australia | — | Loftus Versfeld |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 97. A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.