Australia vs Tonga
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-18.
Australia 96.8%2.2% TongaTonga 6.3%92.7% AustraliaAustralia 94.9%4.1% TongaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Australia v Tonga, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Australia wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Australia and 53 Australia, half of them between 9 Australia and 37 Australia, with the middle run at 22 Australia.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 36 and 82 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 34-12 on a tight afternoon and 46-24 on an open one.
Why Australia are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Australia winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Australia, a bar to the left helps Tonga.
Australia 2101, Tonga 1454 — 647 points, favouring Australia
Australia are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Australia3–0–1Tonga4 meetings, 1973 to 1998 · Australia by 31.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1998-09-22 | Australia 74–0 Tonga | — | Canberra Stadium |
| 1993-07-04 | Australia 52–14 Tonga | — | Ballymore |
| 1973-06-30 | Australia 11–16 Tonga | — | Ballymore |
| 1973-06-23 | Australia 30–12 Tonga | — | Sydney Cricket Ground |
A dash under Competition means the record does not name one, which is common — most rows on file carry no competition. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.