Bath Rugby vs Benetton Treviso
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 84.8%draw 2.5%12.7% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 39.6%draw 2.5%57.9% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 72.1%draw 2.5%25.4% Benetton TrevisoEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Benetton Treviso, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Benetton Treviso and 34 Bath Rugby, half of them between 3 Bath Rugby and 22 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 11 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Benetton Treviso.
Bath Rugby 1768, Benetton Treviso 1413 — 355 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby2–0–1Benetton Treviso3 meetings, 2017 to 2024 · Bath Rugby by 13.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | Benetton Treviso 22–21 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2018-01-20 | Benetton Treviso 28–47 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2017-10-14 | Bath Rugby 23–0 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.