Bath Rugby vs Benetton Treviso
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 80.4%draw 2.5%17.1% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 35.0%draw 2.5%62.5% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 71.7%draw 2.5%25.8% Benetton TrevisoEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Benetton Treviso and 37 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 11 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Benetton Treviso.
Bath Rugby 1766, Benetton Treviso 1478 — 289 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby2–0–1Benetton Treviso3 meetings, 2017 to 2024 · Bath Rugby by 13.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | Benetton Treviso 22–21 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2018-01-20 | Benetton Treviso 28–47 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2017-10-14 | Bath Rugby 23–0 Benetton Treviso | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.