Bath Rugby vs Bordeaux Begles
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 54.0%draw 2.5%43.5% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 65.9%draw 2.5%31.6% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 40.4%draw 2.5%57.1% Bordeaux BeglesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Bordeaux Begles, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Bordeaux Begles and 19 Bath Rugby, half of them between 6 Bordeaux Begles and 9 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Bordeaux Begles.
Bath Rugby 1768, Bordeaux Begles 1825 — 57 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby0–0–1Bordeaux Begles1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 12.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Bordeaux Begles 38–26 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.