Bath Rugby vs Bristol Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 60.5%draw 2.5%37.0% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 58.4%draw 2.5%39.1% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 50.0%draw 2.5%47.5% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Bristol Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Bristol Rugby and 24 Bath Rugby, half of them between 5 Bristol Rugby and 13 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Bristol Rugby.
Bath Rugby 1768, Bristol Rugby 1762 — 6 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby8–0–13Bristol Rugby21 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Bristol Rugby by 2.6 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Bristol Rugby by 0.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Bristol Rugby 21–19 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-10-25 | Bath Rugby 40–15 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-06-06 | Bath Rugby 34–20 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-05-10 | Bristol Rugby 36–14 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Principality Stadium |
| 2024-10-05 | Bath Rugby 26–36 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.