Bath Rugby vs Bristol Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 69.3%draw 2.5%28.2% Bristol RugbyBath Rugby 60.6%draw 2.5%36.9% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Bristol Rugby and 25 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 6 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Bristol Rugby.
Bath Rugby 1766, Bristol Rugby 1588 — 178 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby8–0–12Bristol Rugby20 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Bristol Rugby by 2.4 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Bristol Rugby by 0.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | Bristol Rugby 21–19 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-10-25 | Bath Rugby 40–15 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-06-06 | Bath Rugby 34–20 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-05-10 | Bristol Rugby 36–14 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Principality Stadium |
| 2024-10-05 | Bath Rugby 26–36 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 20. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.