Bath Rugby vs Cardiff Blues
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 76.0%draw 2.5%21.5% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 53.7%draw 2.5%43.8% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 60.3%draw 2.5%37.2% Cardiff BluesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Cardiff Blues, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Cardiff Blues and 28 Bath Rugby, half of them between 1 Bath Rugby and 17 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 7 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Cardiff Blues.
Bath Rugby 1768, Cardiff Blues 1645 — 123 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby2–0–1Cardiff Blues3 meetings, 2016 to 2023 · Bath Rugby by 5.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-16 | Cardiff Blues 32–39 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2016-12-15 | Bath Rugby 38–3 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2016-12-10 | Cardiff Blues 28–3 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.