Bath Rugby vs Cardiff Blues
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 74.1%draw 2.5%23.4% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 46.6%draw 2.5%50.9% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 62.7%draw 2.5%34.8% Cardiff BluesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Cardiff Blues and 34 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 9 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Cardiff Blues.
Bath Rugby 1766, Cardiff Blues 1573 — 193 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby2–0–1Cardiff Blues3 meetings, 2016 to 2023 · Bath Rugby by 5.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-16 | Cardiff Blues 32–39 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2016-12-15 | Bath Rugby 38–3 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2016-12-10 | Cardiff Blues 28–3 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.