Bath Rugby vs Castres Olympique
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 82.0%draw 2.5%15.5% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 45.5%draw 2.5%52.0% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 67.7%draw 2.5%29.8% Castres OlympiqueEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Castres Olympique, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Castres Olympique and 33 Bath Rugby, half of them between 2 Bath Rugby and 20 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 10 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Castres Olympique.
Bath Rugby 1768, Castres Olympique 1456 — 312 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–0Castres Olympique1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 23.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | Castres Olympique 20–43 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Pierre Fabre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.