Bath Rugby vs Clermont Auvergne
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 79.8%draw 2.5%17.7% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 47.8%draw 2.5%49.7% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 65.8%draw 2.5%31.7% Clermont AuvergneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Clermont Auvergne, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Clermont Auvergne and 31 Bath Rugby, half of them between 1 Bath Rugby and 20 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 9 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Clermont Auvergne.
Bath Rugby 1768, Clermont Auvergne 1466 — 302 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–2Clermont Auvergne3 meetings, 2019 to 2025 · Clermont Auvergne by 8.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | Bath Rugby 40–21 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2019-12-15 | Clermont Auvergne 52–26 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2019-12-06 | Bath Rugby 17–34 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.