Bath Rugby vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 78.0%draw 2.5%19.5% EdinburghEdinburgh 40.3%draw 2.5%57.2% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Edinburgh and 34 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 10 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Edinburgh.
Bath Rugby 1766, Edinburgh 1496 — 270 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby2–0–1Edinburgh3 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 15.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Bath Rugby 63–10 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-05-03 | Edinburgh 24–39 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-04-16 | Edinburgh 41–19 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.