Bath Rugby vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 73.9%draw 2.5%23.6% EdinburghEdinburgh 51.2%draw 2.5%46.3% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 61.3%draw 2.5%36.2% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Edinburgh, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Edinburgh and 30 Bath Rugby, half of them between level and 18 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 8 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-28 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Edinburgh.
Bath Rugby 1768, Edinburgh 1528 — 240 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby2–0–1Edinburgh3 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 15.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Bath Rugby 63–10 Edinburgh | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-05-03 | Edinburgh 24–39 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
| 2022-04-16 | Edinburgh 41–19 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Hive Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.