Bath Rugby vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 62.9%draw 2.5%34.6% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 57.6%draw 2.5%39.9% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 51.6%draw 2.5%45.9% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Exeter Chiefs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Exeter Chiefs and 24 Bath Rugby, half of them between 4 Exeter Chiefs and 13 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Exeter Chiefs.
Bath Rugby 1768, Exeter Chiefs 1716 — 52 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby10–0–16Exeter Chiefs26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 6.8 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Bath Rugby by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Bath Rugby 40–34 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2026-06-13 | Bath Rugby 26–27 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2026-05-10 | Exeter Chiefs 35–12 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2026-01-03 | Bath Rugby 33–26 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-04-19 | Exeter Chiefs 24–26 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.