Bath Rugby vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 59.2%draw 2.5%38.3% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 59.2%draw 2.5%38.3% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 48.8%draw 2.5%48.7% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Exeter Chiefs and 23 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Exeter Chiefs.
Bath Rugby 1766, Exeter Chiefs 1754 — 12 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby8–0–15Exeter Chiefs23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 7.9 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · level on average margin
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Bath Rugby 26–27 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2026-05-10 | Exeter Chiefs 35–12 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2026-01-03 | Bath Rugby 33–26 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-04-19 | Exeter Chiefs 24–26 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2024-04-20 | Exeter Chiefs 14–26 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.