Bath Rugby vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 46.8%draw 2.5%50.7% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 70.7%draw 2.5%26.8% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 36.3%draw 2.5%61.2% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Glasgow Warriors, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Glasgow Warriors and 16 Bath Rugby, half of them between 9 Glasgow Warriors and 7 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Glasgow Warriors.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Glasgow Warriors.
Bath Rugby 1768, Glasgow Warriors 1949 — 181 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–1–1Glasgow Warriors3 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Bath Rugby by 0.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-20 | Glasgow Warriors 19–19 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2022-12-10 | Bath Rugby 19–22 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2015-01-25 | Bath Rugby 20–15 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.