Bath Rugby vs Glasgow Warriors
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 57.7%draw 2.5%39.8% Glasgow WarriorsGlasgow Warriors 59.5%draw 2.5%38.0% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 47.8%draw 2.5%49.7% Glasgow WarriorsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Glasgow Warriors and 24 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Glasgow Warriors.
Bath Rugby 1766, Glasgow Warriors 1792 — 26 points, favouring Glasgow Warriors
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–1–1Glasgow Warriors3 meetings, 2015 to 2023 · Bath Rugby by 0.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-20 | Glasgow Warriors 19–19 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Scotstoun Stadium |
| 2022-12-10 | Bath Rugby 19–22 Glasgow Warriors | European Challenge Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2015-01-25 | Bath Rugby 20–15 Glasgow Warriors | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.