Bath Rugby vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Gloucester Rugby host Bath Rugby on Friday 23 October at Kingsholm, Gloucester, so Gloucester Rugby are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Bath Rugby 64.6%draw 2.5%32.9% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 59.7%draw 2.5%37.8% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 48.3%draw 2.5%49.2% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Gloucester Rugby v Bath Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Gloucester Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Bath Rugby and 22 Gloucester Rugby, half of them between 5 Bath Rugby and 12 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Gloucester Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Gloucester Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Gloucester Rugby, a bar to the left helps Bath Rugby.
Gloucester Rugby 1684, Bath Rugby 1768 — 84 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Gloucester Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby15–1–7Gloucester Rugby23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 5.1 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Bath Rugby by 6.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Gloucester Rugby 26–30 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-10-11 | Bath Rugby 38–17 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-04-13 | Bath Rugby 61–26 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-03-23 | Bath Rugby 42–26 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-10-12 | Gloucester Rugby 31–55 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.