Bath Rugby vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 70.8%draw 2.5%26.7% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 45.9%draw 2.5%51.6% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 62.1%draw 2.5%35.4% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Gloucester Rugby and 32 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 7 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Gloucester Rugby.
Bath Rugby 1766, Gloucester Rugby 1520 — 246 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby14–1–6Gloucester Rugby21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 7.5 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Bath Rugby by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Gloucester Rugby 26–30 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-10-11 | Bath Rugby 38–17 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-04-13 | Bath Rugby 61–26 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-03-23 | Bath Rugby 42–26 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-10-12 | Gloucester Rugby 31–55 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.