Bath Rugby vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 75.7%draw 2.5%21.8% HarlequinsHarlequins 52.1%draw 2.5%45.4% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 61.2%draw 2.5%36.3% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Harlequins and 29 Bath Rugby, half of them between 1 Bath Rugby and 17 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 8 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-26 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Bath Rugby 1768, Harlequins 1542 — 226 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby14–0–11Harlequins25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 3.4 on average
Last 10: 8–0–2 · Bath Rugby by 9.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 | Harlequins 17–33 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2026-04-18 | Bath Rugby 48–15 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-09-26 | Harlequins 31–47 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2025-03-29 | Bath Rugby 47–28 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-10-19 | Harlequins 24–26 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.