Bath Rugby vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 66.0%draw 2.5%31.5% HarlequinsHarlequins 51.6%draw 2.5%45.9% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 56.1%draw 2.5%41.4% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Harlequins and 25 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 5 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-27 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Harlequins.
Bath Rugby 1766, Harlequins 1668 — 98 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby13–0–11Harlequins24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 2.8 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Bath Rugby by 6.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Bath Rugby 48–15 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-09-26 | Harlequins 31–47 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2025-03-29 | Bath Rugby 47–28 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-10-19 | Harlequins 24–26 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-03-30 | Harlequins 40–36 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.