Bath Rugby vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 54.4%draw 2.5%43.1% La RochelleLa Rochelle 69.4%draw 2.5%28.1% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 38.6%draw 2.5%58.9% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v La Rochelle, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 La Rochelle and 18 Bath Rugby, half of them between 6 La Rochelle and 9 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps La Rochelle.
Bath Rugby 1768, La Rochelle 1820 — 52 points, favouring La Rochelle
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby0–0–2La Rochelle2 meetings, 2022 to 2024 · La Rochelle by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-06 | Bath Rugby 20–24 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2022-01-15 | La Rochelle 39–21 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.