Bath Rugby vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 59.5%draw 2.5%38.0% La RochelleLa Rochelle 60.6%draw 2.5%36.9% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 48.2%draw 2.5%49.3% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 La Rochelle and 22 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 30-27 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours La Rochelle.
Bath Rugby 1766, La Rochelle 1748 — 18 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby0–0–3La Rochelle3 meetings, 2020 to 2024 · La Rochelle by 16.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-06 | Bath Rugby 20–24 La Rochelle | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2022-01-15 | La Rochelle 39–21 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2020-12-19 | La Rochelle 28–0 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.