Bath Rugby vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 54.4%draw 2.5%43.1% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 62.6%draw 2.5%34.9% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 44.5%draw 2.5%53.0% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Leicester Tigers and 24 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Leicester Tigers.
Bath Rugby 1766, Leicester Tigers 1840 — 74 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby13–1–10Leicester Tigers24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leicester Tigers by 0.5 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Leicester Tigers by 0.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Bath Rugby 24–22 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-10-18 | Leicester Tigers 22–20 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-06-14 | Bath Rugby 23–21 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-05-17 | Bath Rugby 43–15 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-09-29 | Leicester Tigers 15–20 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.