Bath Rugby vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 61.1%draw 2.5%36.4% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 61.3%draw 2.5%36.2% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 50.6%draw 2.5%46.9% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Leicester Tigers and 21 Bath Rugby, half of them between 5 Leicester Tigers and 11 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Leicester Tigers.
Bath Rugby 1768, Leicester Tigers 1800 — 32 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby13–1–11Leicester Tigers25 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Leicester Tigers by 1.0 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Leicester Tigers by 0.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Bath Rugby 24–22 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-10-18 | Leicester Tigers 22–20 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-06-14 | Bath Rugby 23–21 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-05-17 | Bath Rugby 43–15 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-09-29 | Leicester Tigers 15–20 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 25. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.