Bath Rugby vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 49.6%draw 2.5%47.9% LeinsterLeinster 69.2%draw 2.5%28.3% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 38.7%draw 2.5%58.8% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Leinster and 22 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 19-19 on a tight afternoon and 30-30 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Leinster.
Bath Rugby 1766, Leinster 1912 — 146 points, favouring Leinster
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–7Leinster8 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Leinster by 19.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Leinster 47–21 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2022-01-22 | Bath Rugby 7–64 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2021-12-11 | Leinster 45–20 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-12-15 | Leinster 42–15 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-12-08 | Bath Rugby 10–17 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.