Bath Rugby vs Leinster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 46.1%draw 2.5%51.4% LeinsterLeinster 72.6%draw 2.5%24.9% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 32.6%draw 2.5%64.9% LeinsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Leinster, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Leinster and 15 Bath Rugby, half of them between 9 Leinster and 7 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Leinster.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 32-31 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Leinster.
Bath Rugby 1768, Leinster 1915 — 147 points, favouring Leinster
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–7Leinster8 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Leinster by 19.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Leinster 47–21 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2022-01-22 | Bath Rugby 7–64 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2021-12-11 | Leinster 45–20 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-12-15 | Leinster 42–15 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Aviva Stadium |
| 2018-12-08 | Bath Rugby 10–17 Leinster | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 8. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.