Bath Rugby vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 41.5%draw 2.5%56.0% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 72.9%draw 2.5%24.6% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 32.5%draw 2.5%65.0% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Montpellier Herault and 15 Bath Rugby, half of them between 10 Montpellier Herault and 6 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Bath Rugby 1768, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 204 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby0–0–2Montpellier Herault2 meetings, 2021 to 2026 · Montpellier Herault by 13.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Bath Rugby 14–32 Montpellier Herault | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2021-05-01 | Bath Rugby 10–19 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Recreation Ground |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.