Bath Rugby vs Munster
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 68.1%draw 2.5%29.4% MunsterMunster 46.9%draw 2.5%50.6% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 59.5%draw 2.5%38.0% MunsterEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Munster and 32 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 7 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Munster.
Bath Rugby 1766, Munster 1670 — 96 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–0Munster1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Bath Rugby by 26.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Bath Rugby 40–14 Munster | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.