Bath Rugby vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 54.5%draw 2.5%43.0% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 64.9%draw 2.5%32.6% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 42.8%draw 2.5%54.7% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Northampton Saints and 22 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Bath Rugby 1766, Northampton Saints 1918 — 152 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby12–0–12Northampton Saints24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 0.9 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Bath Rugby by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Northampton Saints 41–38 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2026-04-10 | Bath Rugby 43–41 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-12-27 | Bath Rugby 21–41 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-01-05 | Northampton Saints 35–34 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-09-20 | Bath Rugby 38–16 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.