Bath Rugby vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 46.5%draw 2.5%51.0% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 38.6%draw 2.5%58.9% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Northampton Saints and 15 Bath Rugby, half of them between 9 Northampton Saints and 7 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Northampton Saints.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Bath Rugby 1768, Northampton Saints 1957 — 189 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby12–0–14Northampton Saints26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Northampton Saints by 0.1 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · Northampton Saints by 2.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Northampton Saints 71–48 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2026-04-25 | Northampton Saints 41–38 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2026-04-10 | Bath Rugby 43–41 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-12-27 | Bath Rugby 21–41 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-01-05 | Northampton Saints 35–34 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.