Bath Rugby vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 61.8%draw 2.5%35.7% PauPau 62.3%draw 2.5%35.2% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 50.6%draw 2.5%46.9% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 15 Pau and 20 Bath Rugby, half of them between 5 Pau and 11 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Bath Rugby 1768, Pau 1818 — 50 points, favouring Pau
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby3–0–0Pau3 meetings, 2016 to 2025 · Bath Rugby by 29.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-04 | Pau 24–49 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
| 2017-01-21 | Bath Rugby 69–10 Pau | European Challenge Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2016-10-15 | Pau 22–25 Bath Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade du Hameau |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.