Bath Rugby vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 71.2%draw 2.5%26.3% Racing 92Racing 92 53.9%draw 2.5%43.6% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 57.9%draw 2.5%39.6% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Racing 92 and 28 Bath Rugby, half of them between 1 Racing 92 and 16 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 7 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Bath Rugby 1768, Racing 92 1632 — 136 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–0Racing 921 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Bath Rugby by 4.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-14 | Bath Rugby 29–25 Racing 92 | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.