Bath Rugby vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby host Sale Sharks on Saturday 31 October at Recreation Ground, Bath, so Bath Rugby are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Bath Rugby 75.3%draw 2.5%22.2% Sale SharksSale Sharks 50.5%draw 2.5%47.0% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 63.1%draw 2.5%34.4% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Sale Sharks, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Sale Sharks and 27 Bath Rugby, half of them between level and 16 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 7 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Sale Sharks.
Bath Rugby 1768, Sale Sharks 1504 — 264 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby13–2–8Sale Sharks23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 3.4 on average
Last 10: 6–1–3 · Bath Rugby by 5.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Sale Sharks 26–31 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-10-03 | Bath Rugby 28–16 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-01-26 | Sale Sharks 23–32 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-10-26 | Bath Rugby 40–13 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-06-01 | Bath Rugby 31–23 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.