Bath Rugby vs Sale Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 69.6%draw 2.5%27.9% Sale SharksSale Sharks 49.2%draw 2.5%48.3% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 59.5%draw 2.5%38.0% Sale SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Sale Sharks and 29 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 7 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Sale Sharks.
Bath Rugby 1766, Sale Sharks 1558 — 208 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby13–3–8Sale Sharks24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bath Rugby by 3.3 on average
Last 10: 6–1–3 · Bath Rugby by 5.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Sale Sharks 26–31 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2025-10-03 | Bath Rugby 28–16 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-01-26 | Sale Sharks 23–32 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | CorpAcq Stadium |
| 2024-10-26 | Bath Rugby 40–13 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-06-01 | Bath Rugby 31–23 Sale Sharks | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.