Bath Rugby vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 58.7%draw 2.5%38.8% SaracensSaracens 64.3%draw 2.5%33.2% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 45.9%draw 2.5%51.6% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Saracens and 22 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Saracens.
Bath Rugby 1766, Saracens 1802 — 36 points, favouring Saracens
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby8–2–13Saracens23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 4.6 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Bath Rugby by 3.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Bath Rugby 31–22 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2026-03-20 | Bath Rugby 62–15 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-12-28 | Bath Rugby 68–10 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2024-04-26 | Bath Rugby 12–15 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2023-10-21 | Saracens 16–25 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.