Bath Rugby vs Saracens
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 54.0%draw 2.5%43.5% SaracensSaracens 65.5%draw 2.5%32.0% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 43.3%draw 2.5%54.2% SaracensEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Saracens, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Saracens and 19 Bath Rugby, half of them between 7 Saracens and 9 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Saracens.
Bath Rugby 1768, Saracens 1861 — 93 points, favouring Saracens
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby9–1–14Saracens24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Saracens by 4.5 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bath Rugby by 12.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Bath Rugby 31–22 Saracens | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2026-03-20 | Bath Rugby 62–15 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
| 2025-11-30 | Saracens 29–36 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2025-05-31 | Saracens 36–26 Bath Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | StoneX Stadium |
| 2024-12-28 | Bath Rugby 68–10 Saracens | Gallagher Premiership | Recreation Ground |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.