Bath Rugby vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 82.8%draw 2.5%14.7% ScarletsScarlets 32.8%draw 2.5%64.7% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 76.1%draw 2.5%21.4% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Scarlets and 30 Bath Rugby, half of them between 2 Bath Rugby and 19 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 9 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-17 on a tight afternoon and 37-28 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Bath Rugby 1768, Scarlets 1273 — 495 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–2Scarlets3 meetings, 2017 to 2020 · Scarlets by 5.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-12 | Bath Rugby 19–23 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2018-01-12 | Bath Rugby 17–35 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2017-10-20 | Scarlets 13–18 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.