Bath Rugby vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 79.7%draw 2.5%17.8% ScarletsScarlets 31.0%draw 2.5%66.5% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 74.2%draw 2.5%23.3% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Scarlets and 34 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 10 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 37-27 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Scarlets.
Bath Rugby 1766, Scarlets 1334 — 432 points, favouring Bath Rugby
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–2Scarlets3 meetings, 2017 to 2020 · Scarlets by 5.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-12 | Bath Rugby 19–23 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2018-01-12 | Bath Rugby 17–35 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2017-10-20 | Scarlets 13–18 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.