Bath Rugby vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bath Rugby 39.3%draw 2.5%58.2% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 72.9%draw 2.5%24.6% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 30.9%draw 2.5%66.6% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bath Rugby v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Stade Toulousain and 16 Bath Rugby, half of them between 10 Stade Toulousain and 6 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Stade Toulousain.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-31 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bath Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bath Rugby, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Bath Rugby 1768, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 224 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–3Stade Toulousain4 meetings, 2015 to 2024 · level on average margin
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-21 | Stade Toulousain 31–19 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2019-01-20 | Stade Toulousain 20–17 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2018-10-13 | Bath Rugby 20–22 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2015-01-18 | Stade Toulousain 18–35 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.