Bath Rugby vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bath Rugby 57.5%draw 2.5%40.0% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 62.5%draw 2.5%35.0% Bath RugbyBath Rugby 46.1%draw 2.5%51.4% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bath Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stade Toulousain and 21 Bath Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Bath Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 30-28 on an open one.
Why Bath Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bath Rugby, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Bath Rugby 1766, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 97 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Bath Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bath Rugby1–0–3Stade Toulousain4 meetings, 2015 to 2024 · level on average margin
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-21 | Stade Toulousain 31–19 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2019-01-20 | Stade Toulousain 20–17 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2018-10-13 | Bath Rugby 20–22 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Recreation Ground |
| 2015-01-18 | Stade Toulousain 18–35 Bath Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.